|
|
|
.......................................
Most Recent Articles: .. Oil and war speculation "..the markets have reacted to oil price surges driven solely by speculators, and a preemptive strike possibility that has not even occurred...."
.. Bank of America & Countrywide: A signal of a housing bottom? The lender will once again have the position of strength.... ..
Featuring San Diego Commercial, San Diego Industrial, San Diego Homes, San Diego MLS, and San Diego Real Estate! ....
Ongoing Articles:
..
Next for the Economy: The Greatest Bull Run in History? An analysis of the stock market and economy since the Bear Stearns incident in March '08...
...
No Recession, but Deflation? The March '08 UCLA economic report so far is 'right on target.... .... .. ..
The UCLA Anderson Forecast Highly Recommended! ... Most Recent Articles: .. The Schizophrenic FED Gambit .. Bearish on Housing, Bullish on Stocks ..
Analysis of California Bank Earnings Highly Recommended!
..
Q2- '08: Riverside-San Bernardino tops the list...
. Q2 2008 6-15-08:- Deflation with Inflation: No Recession, but Depression? Home Page
9/11/2008 Update: I am avoiding stocks and real estate investments at this time; more attractive prices may be down the road. Possible continued dollar strength and deflationary trend. Hyperinflation is still expected with all the bailouts and debt our country has; and this is the long term outlook. Additionally, when the fed finally takes action, they may overcompensate its reaction to adverse dollar resilience. The markets today are not in any way logical or make sense; no one can predict what will happen, no matter what their credentials. In this type on environment, it seems wise to stay uncommitted and readily liquid until the hyperinflation makes itself apparent. Consult your financial professional; not investment advice (see disclaimer below).When considering a downward progression in economic growth, with increasing debt and consumer pressure; is there a threat of a full blown depression? Is the US going bankrupt as our credit as a nation deteriorates? Does this mean our ingrained 'forward looking ' investment philosophy is just 'denial' of the inevitable? Being bullish as assets drop in price, and fearing a depression at the same time is truly a sign of the times. With deflation and inflation, we have to consider which is the true harbinger of the economy.
Deflation and Inflation are happening simultaneously; But how is this possible, and why is it still happening? It's starting to look like U.S. paper assets and equities are losing credibility; perhaps there is less willingness of foreign investment in America. We're seeing the consequences now. This is also why I think the dollar rally cannot hold.
Unfortunately, the US has politically made so many enemies that there is a unified, underlying drive to set us to ruin. China. Russia. The Middle East. These are governments that have the means and the method to turn our economy upside down. By default, Europe may replace the US as the stability center. The corruption, greed, and manipulation of our financial and investment core is becoming synonymous with that of an African third world country. As our economy implodes, in order to survive we will be forced to become a fascist aggressor or a socialist state. With the failure of Iraq, the latter seems more likely. The American people will elect Obama and we'll probably see some record government bailouts.
Problem is, with our economy growing at under 1%, our revenues are not keeping up with inflation. Our trade deficit widens, and our debt soars. We have baby boomers entering retirement, meaning more pressure on social security and gov't sponsored medical care. These same retirees are liquidating their portfolios, getting out of the market to insure they at least have some retirement assets. They also can be relied upon to lobby that social security remains as it is; meaning more pressure for socialist measures from those that have the political power to enact them. Other countries have this general knowledge of our economy as well. Would you invest in a country that has the detrimental economic fundamentals of privilege and entitlement that our country has? Or would you invest in a credit debt culture living well beyond its means, rooted as deeply as the everyday consumer?
Looking through the telescope into the future, it looks like continued oil and commodity strength, and US asset weakness: all while inflation results from the speculation in even the most basic of commodities. "The greatest bull run"; may be only a blip which we have already seen. Looks like gold, silver and tech may be the plays for the rest of the year.
It's scary to be exposed to any American market right now; especially when our only hope of recovery is government intervention...not only in housing, but financials, commodities, and the dollar itself.
Written by: The Sniper
. © 2008 Realtech Partners, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Email.
-Comments-
Click here for quick California bank earnings and foreclosure rate updates ---> Analysis of California Bank Earnings
**ARTICLES** Most recent listed last
. Q1-Feb 10 '08: - The Perfect Storm of Economic Downfall Q2- '08: So what do we do now? . .. Q1-Feb 21 '08:- The Counter Intuitive Market Force: But Housing is the Exception Q2- '08: Analysis of CA Bank Earnings . ... Q1-Feb 21 '08:- The 5% Income Rule Q2- '08: Riverside-San Bernardino tops the list... . ... Q1-Feb 21 '08:- A Compelling Argument for Alternative Investments Q2 '08: - Oil and war speculation . ... Q1-Feb 26 '08: True Market Analysis, or Self Interest? Q2 '08:- Bank of America & Countrywide: A signal of a housing bottom? . ... Q1- '08: No Recession, but Deflation? Q2 2008: Deflation with Inflation: No Recession, but Depression? . 3.17.08: Next for the Economy: The Greatest Bull Run in History? Q2- '08: The Schizophrenic FED Gambit .. Q2- '08: Bearish on Housing, Bullish on Stocks
Realtech Partners, Inc. - © 2008. All Rights Reserved. Email
DISCLAIMER: Not associated with any city, county, civil entity, or government body. No warranties are stated or implied. Use at own risk. External web sites are not endorsed. Users agree to all terms. These articles merely reflect the opinions of this author and are by no means a guarantee of future economic conditions. Though the author strives to provide accurate and relevant data, he sometimes relies on external sources and cannot assure the reader of the accuracy contained within. These articles are provided for information purposes only and are not meant to provide investment advice to anyone. Please consult with your professional financial planner for investment advice.
.......................................... Recent Articles: .. Bearish on Housing.... Bullish on Stocks Stock rally, housing folly ... The Schizophrenic FED Gambit The FED rut .. Analysis of CA Bank Earnings Highly Recommended! .. Other Articles ..
... Visit the housing time bomb blog. Highly Recommended!
.. ... California Foreclosures Highly Recommended! ...
.....
....
..
.
.. ..
. .. ..
.. .. .
.
